The Fat Lady Reconceived
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The Fat Lady Reconceived: Prediction As Cocaine
When I wrote and published The Fat Lady Origins last December, it was with an emerging understanding of randomness in life and the Ecclesiastical understanding that “time and chance happeneth to them all.” I was just beginning to understand that there were lots of conditions that surpassed my understanding. I understood that there were events that were far beyond not just my scope, but the scope of the entire humanity.
Today, I reconceive The Fat Lady Origins to make it clearer to myself and the reader. To make it simpler and straight to the point. So here goes nothing.
Why is it not over until it is over? Who is the fat lady? And why shouldn’t we make conclusive judgments on events still in motion?
These three questions above bring the fat lady to life. I answer the second question by emphasizing that “the fat lady” is simply a metaphor. An eye-catching metaphor. It is the best way to call your attention to what I am about to explicate upon. So, do not worry yourself about looking for a fat lady anywhere. Instead, focus on understanding the mindset behind her animation.
“The fat Lady has not sung yet” is simply put “it is not over until it is over.” To many, this statement is one of hope and optimism. But is that all there is to it?
The first element that animates the figurative fat lady is the problem of (un)certainty. Human beings are obsessed with knowing. We want to know. And not just knowing in the plainest sense of understanding how the world works. But knowing to the extent of being so sure of what the future holds.
I wrote in TFLO that “we develop measures and systems to predict the future. Prediction is the cocaine for uncertainty.” We study patterns. We are obsessed with studying patterns. This is because we believe that by capturing patterns, we can predict the future. They do not know it but, entities that crave and thirst for a predictive view of life have a kind of addiction. They don’t know this too; that there are events that don’t fit the pattern. But they always need a sure plan, a calculation, a forecast, that will help eliminate the anxieties of the unknowable future. They try then to force everything to fit a pattern. Why? Because the substance (prediction and forecasts) never solves the problem. But it gives them a momentary euphoria that lets them forget the problem. If I told you how you will receive a million dollars tomorrow in a cab, I believe you will go to bed excited and certain that tomorrow is a good day. And the best part; you will not bother driving your car to work tomorrow. You will take a cab.
Two reasons remain why prediction is desirable to human nature: the need for the predictors to flex a kind of gift or superpower. And the need for the common man who awaits forecast to go about life with hope and encouragement while ignoring or neglecting the messy details of social life and its concurrent responsibilities.
Karl Popper had this to say about predictions and prophecies arising from historicism:
In tracing the development of historicism, I found that the dangerous habit of historical prophecy, so widespread among our intellectual leaders, has various functions. It is always flattering to belong to the inner circle of the initiated, and to possess the unusual power of predicting the course of history…A further motive, it seems, can be found if we consider that historicist metaphysics are apt to relieve men from the strain of their responsibilities. If you know that things are bound to happen whatever you do, then you may feel free to give up the fight against them. (The Open Society and its enemies)
When you believe in the fixed-rigidness of the events of time and history, believing that there is a definite law (like gravity) and pattern upon which history operates, you will always lookout for only what was spoken and blind to the unspoken things; the unpatternable phenomenon that matters.
Is time and chance happening to them all not an indictment on our certainty of the future? In Ecclesiastes according to Solomon, we know that our reliance upon intellect, skill, strength, and what not are immediately mocked when time and chance enters the arena. No rigid arrangement that we have stacked up in our minds like computer programs can stand the test of time and chance. Why then do we still vote for the graduating student who is most likely to succeed? How are we so sure what tomorrow holds? It is arrogance to be fixated on what has not happened. It is stupid to be sure.
What is the worst that could happen? What is the downside of not waiting for the fat lady to sing? What happens when your plans and forecasts are too stiff to withstand the shocking random events of life? Simple: You will jump to your death. A person who ignores the fat lady sees point B from the standpoint of A even if his vision of B is unreal and illusory. Meanwhile, someone who patiently waits for the fat lady to sing will know that the road is not smooth and must be careful to declare that B is in plain sight. I know arrogance when I see it.
Here is my simple plea: life is too complicated to be sure about. Allow room for uncertainty. Yet don’t let it stop you from living. Observe at pace. Resist the urge to forecast. Plan; but leave room for expansions. Live circumspectly; but leave allowances for detour. You don’t know when time and chance will hit.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.
Jevon’s Paradox
Jevon’s paradox occurs in economics when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand. But it is not only in economics.
In the workplace, sophistication has produced efficiency (not always) and reduced labour but it has not reduced work-time. With more sophistication, more efficiency, comes the need to work more to achieve more. This is just a rat on a wheel.
Look at yourself. Are your efficiency tools reducing your labour without reducing your work-hours? Then you might be experiencing Jevon’s paradox. Do something about it.
Of course, here is your picture:
Have a curious week,
Curus.